[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 10N32W to 02N33W, moving west 10 to 15
kt over the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700
mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a moisture surge is
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
moderate convection prevails across the southern portion of the
wave mostly enhanced by the proximity of the ITCZ south of 06N
between 30W-35W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N69W to 10N70W. The wave coincides with a 700
mb trough based on GFS model streamlines and a broad surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
The wave is becoming elongated due to an upper-level low
prevailing to the east of it. Scattered moderate convection is
affecting the Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and their adjacent waters
between 65W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N21W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 06N31W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave
near 05N35W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within
90/120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-40W, within 90 nm north
of the ITCZ between 22W-35W, and within 120/150 nm north of the
ITCZ between 36W-43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 100 nm on either side of both boundaries between 16W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf waters from the
central and east CONUS. A surface trough is across the eastern
portion of the basin extending from 26N88W to 27N82W. A
diffluent flow aloft prevails south of this trough supporting
scattered moderate convection east of 85W. Another surface
trough extends across the western Caribbean enhancing convection
over the Yucatan channel and Florida Straits/Keys. Gentle to
moderate northerly flow prevails across the northern waters
while light to gentle southerly winds dominate the southern half
of the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a cold front
to approach the northeastern Gulf waters with convection. Active
weather will continue across the eastern Gulf as the surface
troughs in the Caribbean and Gulf move north.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across the far west Caribbean from
22N84W to 19N85W. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed along and in the vicinity of the
trough between 83W-87W. Locally heavy rains have occurred over
western Cuba during the past 24 hours, ranging between 3 to 4 in
(75 to 100 mm) mainly in Pinal del Rio. To the east...a tropical
wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the
section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across the basin. Expect during the next 24
hours for the trough in the west Caribbean to drift north with
convection. The tropical wave will continue moving west
enhancing convection across Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is entering Dominican
Republic at this time. With this, cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection is expected during the next 24 hours across
the island as the wave moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Gulf waters, across
the Florida peninsula and into the west Atlantic from 28N81W to
30N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail
along the trough affecting the waters north of 25N and west of
70W. To the east, a pair of 1022 mb surface highs are centered
near 25N56W and 29N48W. A weak 1016 mb surface low was analyzed
over the eastern portion of the basin near 29N33W with a cold
front extending from the low to 22N43W. Isolated convection is
observed in the vicinity of these features. A tropical wave is
moving across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section
above for details. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
surface trough in the west Atlantic to merge with a cold front
and then move east with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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