[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
12N35W to 3N38W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and
a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends from the Turks and Caicos
near 21N71W across Haiti to the coast of Colombia near 12N73W
moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. The wave remains an area of upper difflunce. No
associated deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N13W to 7N20W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 7N28W to east of the tropical wave near 6N35W
then resumes west of the wave near 5N40W along 6N49W to South
America near 6N57W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm along the coast of west Africa south of 10N west
of 10W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-34W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 45 nm of line from
7N14W to 5N18W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-33W,
and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough covers the far northeast CONUS into the
northwest Atlantic extending a narrower upper trough across
Texas and most of Mexico. An upper ridge anchored over west Cuba
extends over south Florida into the far southwest Atlantic is
giving the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A surface trough extends
from the remnants of Colin through the west Atlantic across
Florida between Melbourne and Fort Myers to 25N84W. A second
surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf near 24N84W
through the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the northwest
Caribbean. A third, a diurnal surface trough extends from 22N89W
to over the Yucatan peninsula to southwest Guatemala. A weak
1010 mb low is in the central Gulf near 25N91W. A weak
stationary front is along the north Gulf coast from the Florida
panhandle to central Louisiana. Isolated showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are over the east Gulf east of 89W and
over the northwest Gulf north of 27N between 91W-95W. Weak
pressure pattern across the basin will prevail through the
weekend. The surface trough over the southeast Gulf will lift
northward through Friday then shift east of the area Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over western Cuba extending into the
the southwest Atlantic and covers the Caribbean west of 81W. A
surface trough extends from the southeast Gulf of Mexico through
the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W into the Gulf of Honduras to the
coast of Honduras near 16N88W. A cutoff elongated upper low is
centered in the central Caribbean near 16N77W and extends a
trough axis north through the Windward Passage to 26N70W and
south to 11N80W generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms within 30/45 nm of 12N between 77W-80W. A second
upper ridge is anchored over the Virgin Islands covering the
remainder of the east Caribbean east of 72W. The diffluent
environment between these upper features is generating isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms between 70W-75W
including Hispaniola. Fresh to occasionally strong east winds
are expected near the coast of Colombia through Saturday. The
tropical wave will reach the west Caribbean by Thursday evening
then move inland across Central America this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are across the island tonight. The upper ridge to the east will
shift west over the island Thursday afternoon. Scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue through early
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored over west Cuba extends over the
southeast Gulf of Mexico, south Florida, and the Straits of
Florida into the west Atlantic covering the area south of 28N
east of 75W. A surface trough extends from the remnants of Colin
into the west Atlantic through 32N70W to across Florida near
Melbourne continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to
numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the
surface trough to a line from Cuba near 21N76W along 26N71W to
beyond 32N62W. A cold front is northeast of the surface trough
extending through 32N79W to across southeast Georgia near
31N81W. A cutoff elongated upper low in the Caribbean extends a
trough axis north through the Windward Passage to 26N70W. An
upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold
front north of the area then stationary front along 32N25W and
31N30W to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N32W then continues as a
cold front along 25N35W to 21N42W. Isolated showers are within
45 nm southeast of the cold front. A weak surface ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb
high in the east Atlantic near 29N23W, a 1023 mb high near
29N43W, and a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic near 25N55W.
The surface trough in the west Atlantic will sag southeastward
through Thursday night as a cold front moves across the northern
waters of the west Atlantic. A surface ridge will then prevail
along 25N through Thursday night then shift east on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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