[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 030856
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016

Bonnie's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized, with
a cluster of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the
cyclone expanding in coverage and gaining greater curvature.
However, nighttime visible satellite imagery and Doppler radar data
from Morehead City, North Carolina, still show Bonnie's low-level
center exposed to the northeast of this convective mass.  Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are the same as those from 0000 UTC,
and with the cloud pattern not fundamentally different since that
time, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Bonnie is currently
passing over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream that peak
around 25.5 deg C, and the warmer water and a generally low-shear
environment could allow the cyclone to re-attain tropical storm
status today. By 24 hours, lower sea surface temperatures and a
substantial increase in westerly shear should result in weakening,
and Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone
on Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the
previous one and overall a little below the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

Bonnie has turned east-northeastward and begun to move a little
faster, with an initial motion estimate of 075/07.  Global models
show Bonnie turning eastward soon and accelerating further as it
rides along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies for
the next couple of days.  The NHC track forecast is slightly to the
south of and faster than the previous one, following the multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 35.8N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 36.0N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 36.1N  68.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 36.0N  64.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 35.6N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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