[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 031435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016

Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the
center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east
of the Gulf Stream.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  While little
change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due
to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind
shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72
hours.

The initial motion is now 080/10.  The cyclone should move
generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with
some increase in forward speed until dissipation.  The new forecast
track lies near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 35.9N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 36.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 35.6N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 35.2N  59.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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