[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 030237
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

The last observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft from several hours ago showed that Bonnie had changed
little in intensity and remained just below tropical storm
strength. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone
has not become better organized, and the center appears to be
located on the southeast edge of the main area of deep convection.
The current intensity is held at 30 kt, and this is in agreement
with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  There is a
short window of opportunity for Bonnie to strengthen a bit as it
traverses the Gulf Stream and the vertical shear remains light
during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, increasing shear
and cooler waters should cause the system to weaken and degenerate
into a remnant low.  The official intensity forecast is the same as
that from the previous advisory. This is close to the model
consensus and somewhat below the DSHIPS and LGEM predictions.  By 96
hours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to become absorbed by
an extratropical low over the north Atlantic.

The initial motion is about 055/5.  The track forecast reasoning
remains basically unchanged from the previous couple of advisory
packages.  Bonnie should continue to be steered by the flow on the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies and gradually turn
eastward with acceleration over the next few days.  The official
forecast track is very similar to the previous one and close
to a consensus of the dynamical models, which themselves are
in good agreement.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 35.7N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 36.0N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 36.4N  70.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 36.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 36.2N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 35.0N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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