[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
38W/39W from 6N-15N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in the
global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the east/central Caribbean extends along
68W/69W from 19N to the coast of Venezuela moving west-northwest
near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a 700 mb
trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 81W/82W from
10N-17N moving west-southwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is shallow and coincided with a 850 mb trough
depicted in the global models and is embedded within a moderate
surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W and continues along 10N19W to 11N26W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 10N31W to east of the
tropical wave near 9N37W, then resumes west of the wave near
9N41W to the coast of South America near 6N55W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 90 nm along the coast
of southwest Africa south of 8N east of 9W. Clusters of isolated
moderate convection are within 120 nm of a line from 7N16W to
10N25W, from 6N-9N between 31W-41W, and from 5N-8N between 50W-
55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper low dominates the Gulf and is centered near
27N87W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from 22N-28N east of 89W to the coast of the Florida peninsula
and through the Straits of Florida. The diurnal surface trough
extends from 22N90W to inland over south Mexico near 18N93W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
21N west of 93W to inland over Mexico and scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms east of the trough to over the
Yucatan peninsula. A surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic across central Florida and the northern Gulf to the
northeast coast of Texas. This is leaving the remainder of the
Gulf with fair weather this morning. The surface ridge will
persist through Tuesday, then weaken on Wednesday. The diurnal
surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and
dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cutoff upper low is in the central Caribbean near 16N78W and
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the east from 15N-18N between 70W-76W. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica south of the
Caribbean but is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean within 60 nm along the
coast of Panama, Costa Rica and south Nicaragua south of 12N
west of 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 10N
east of 82W to the coast of Colombia. The tight pressure
gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, except near gale force winds
along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours. The west Caribbean tropical wave will move across the
remainder of the basin through tonight. The east Caribbean
tropical wave will move into the central Caribbean today and the
west Caribbean by Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies remain mostly clear across the island this morning with
some isolated showers and thunderstorms just off the south coast
of Haiti. The combination of the upper low over the central
Caribbean and the tropical wave in the Mona Passage will give
the island possible showers and thunderstorms that will spread
east to west across the island through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge is in the southwest Atlantic near 24N72W and is
providing difflunce aloft to the west to generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 28N to the coast of
Cuba west of 77W to the coast of Florida, including the northern
most Bahama islands. The north portion of the tropical wave in
the east/central Caribbean is now depicted as a surface trough
that extends from 25N63W to 20N65W and is clearly seen on
satellite imagery as an inverted trough. An elongated upper low
is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N45W to 20N56W
supporting a surface trough that extends through 32N40W to
27N48W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are from 24N-32N between 42W-56W. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the Atlantic this morning. A 1025 mb high is in
the northeast Atlantic near 33N30W and a 1023 mb high in the
central Atlantic near 28N58W and extending a ridge axis west
along 27N75W across central Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. This
surface ridge will persist through the week with a surface high
developing near 29N70W by tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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