[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
37W/38W from 6N-16N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough depicted in the
global models and is along the leading edge of a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 66W/67W from
20N across Puerto Rico to inland over Venezuela moving west-
northwest 20 to 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is trailing a
700 mb trough depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable water imagery. Activity in the vicinity of this
wave is associated with an upper low over the central Caribbean.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 80W from 10N-
20N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
shallow and coincided with a 850 mb trough depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a moderate surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W and continues along 10N27W to east of the
tropical wave near 8N37W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical
wave near 7N41W and continues along 4N47W to the coast of South
America near 5N50W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are from 8N-12N between 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper low dominates the Gulf and is centered near
26N87W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 45/60 nm of line from 23N88W to 27N86W. The diurnal
surface trough inland over the Yucatan peninsula is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 21N east
of 92W to inland over the Yucatan and south of 20N west of 92W
to inland over south Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the
west Atlantic across central Florida to over the northern Gulf
to the northeast coast of Texas. This is leaving the remainder
of the Gulf with clear skies tonight. The surface ridge will
persist through Tuesday, then weaken on Wednesday. The diurnal
surface trough will form each evening over the Yucatan and
dissipate over the southwest Gulf late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cutoff upper low is in the central Caribbean near 14N78W and
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the east from 12N-18N between 68W-73W. The monsoon trough
extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica south of the
Caribbean but is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the southwest Caribbean within 60 nm along the coast of Costa
Rica and Panama west of 80W. The west Atlantic surface ridge
coupled with the lower pressure over South America is producing
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, except
near gale force winds along the northwest coast of Colombia
during the overnight hours. The west Caribbean tropical wave
will move across the remainder of the basin through Monday night
into Tuesday morning. The east Caribbean tropical wave will move
into the central Caribbean Monday and the west Caribbean by
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have diminished tonight
leaving clear skies across the island. The combination of the
upper low over the central Caribbean and the approaching
tropical wave will give the island showers and thunderstorms
that will spread east to west across the island through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low is over the central Atlantic near 26N49W generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 25N-30N
between 45W-55W. Otherwise a broad surface ridge dominates the
Atlantic tonight. A 1026 mb high is in the northeast Atlantic
near 33N30W extending a ridge axis southwest along 28N40W then
west through a 1025 mb high near 28N55W, then along 27N73W
across central Floria into the Gulf of Mexico. This surface
ridge will persist through the week with a surface high
developing near 29N70W Monday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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