[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 16N34W to 06N37W, moving W at 15 kt within the
last 24 hours. Meteosat imagery shows Saharan dust and dry air
prevailing along most of the wave's area. Strong deep-layer wind
shear is also limiting convection. Isolated moderate convection
is from 04N-09N between 33W-40W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N64W to 10N66W, moving W at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a moderate moist
environment from surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. This wave shows an outflow boundary approaching the ABC
Islands. Isolated moderate convection is from 11N-17N between
63W-68W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis from
20N75W to 11N78W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours.
Shallow moisture prevails behind this wave. Radar imagery shows
scattered convection across eastern Cuba between 77W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N15W to 08N36W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N39W to the coast of South America near 06N53W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave,
isolated moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 14W-33W,
and from 05N-08N between 44W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered near 27N85W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
as noted on scatterometer imagery going around the high. In the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the eastern
Gulf near 27N86W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly inland
over the north Gulf States from Louisiana to Florida N of 30N.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over the Florida
Peninsula, W Cuba, and S Mexico between 90W-96W. Expect over the
next 24 hours for convection to advect to the Straits of Florida
and S Florida. Also expect more convection to advect to the Bay
of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. Please refer to the
above section for more details. 10-25 knot tradewinds are over
the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean S
of Jamaica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N
Colombia, W Panama, and Costa Rica. A surface trough is over the
Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to 16N91W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 16N-21N between 87W-90W. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the SW
Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to be the dominate features
over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are now over eastern Hispaniola. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to spread over the entire island
during the next 24 hours due to an approaching tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature across the basin is the tropical wave. See
above. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the Atlantic
waters anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N57W and a
1025 mb high near 33N30W. Little change is expected within the
next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net