[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 17N38W to 06N41W, moving W at around
10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb
trough depicted in the global models and is along the leading edge
of a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted due to
abundant Saharan dust in the area.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
from 19N73W to 10N74W, moving W near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. A 700 mb trough is depicted in the global models in this
area and a surge of moisture is noted on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level low centered S of
eastern Cuba combined with this wave is supporting isolated
convection along the northern portion of it mainly N of 15N
between 72W-77W affecting portions of SW Hispaniola and eastern
Jamaica.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis
extending from 17N85W to 09N85W, moving W at 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave coincided with a broad 700 mb inverted
trough depicted in the global models and is embedded within a
moderate surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the
southern portion of the wave mainly S of 13N between 82W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 12N26W, where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 10N39W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
09N42W to 06W56W. Isolated showers prevail S of the boundaries
between 18W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over the NE Gulf supporting
isolated convection across the eastern half of the basin. At the
surface, a ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
western Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle
anticyclonic flow across the Gulf. Little change is expected
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the area. Please refer to the
section above for details. The proximity of the Monsoon Trough
is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 78W-84W. The tight
pressure gradient between the Atlantic surface ridge and the lower
pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean as noted in scatterometer data.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving W with convection.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

The combination of the upper-level low over the central Caribbean
and the tropical wave currently moving across the Windward Passage will
give the island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting isolated convection across the W Atlantic mainly W of
75W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 24N64W to 20N65W.
Isolated convection is observed along this feature. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered near 28N58W. A similar weather pattern will continue
through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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