[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical east Atlantic with axis near
31W, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave
is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Weak deep layer wind shear and
a diffluent environment aloft allow for the development of
scattered showers from 03N-11N between 28W and 39W.

A tropical wave is in the west tropical Atlantic with axis near
54W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave
environment from the surface to 850 mb is mainly dry, also noticed on
Meteosat imagery showing Saharan dry air and dust. The exception
is the southern region of the wave where ITCZ moist air supports
scattered showers from 7N-11N between 50W and 57W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 78W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is
associated with the wave. The wave is also embedded in an
environment of strong deep layer wind shear that hinder convection
activity at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to
07N45W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers
are from 05N-12N between 43W and 50W and from 05N-10N E of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to
extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of
Mexico basin. In the Gulf, the ridge is being anchored by a 1019 mb
center of high pressure near 28N84W that provides variable light
winds in the NE basin. Moderate return flow dominates elsewhere,
except within 90 nm off the western Yucatan Peninsula where a heat
trough locally tighten the pres gradient to support E-NE fresh
wind. No major changes are expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a weak tropical wave
with axis near 78W. Strong deep layer wind shear across the
central Caribbean hinders in part the development of convection
nearby the wave. Please see the tropical waves section for more
details. The presence of the wave in the central basin tightens
the gradient of pres and support a broad region of moderate to
strong trades S of 18N between 68W and 82W, except along the coast
of Colombia where winds increase to near-gale force. Otherwise,
scattered showers and tstms are within 60 nm off Panama and Costa
Rica. The tropical wave will move into Central America early
Saturday while a second tropical enters the eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the
Island suppressing the development of convection this morning.
Stable conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon.
Model guidance indicates the development of showers tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are the two tropical waves
discussed in the section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1025 mb
center of high pres SW of the Azores near 32N31W. A tight pres
gradient between this ridge and lower pres associated with the
monsoon trough support fresh to strong N flow within 270 nm off
the Mauritania and Western Sahara coasts.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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