[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical east Atlantic with axis near
30W, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave
is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery, except in its northern region
where Saharan dry air and dust are present. Weak deep layer wind
shear and a diffluent environment aloft allow for the development
of scattered showers from 3N-10N between 26W and 39W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis near
46W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave environment
from the surface to 850 mb is mainly dry with Meteosat imagery
showing Saharan dry air and dust. The exception is the central
region of the wave where ITCZ moist air supports scattered showers
from 6N-12N between 41W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 75W, moving
west at 10 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to moderate moist
environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with the
wave. The wave is also embedded in an environment of strong deep
layer wind shear that hinder convection activity at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to
10N45W; it then resumes west of a tropical wave near 09N48W to
the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Aside the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered showers are from 08N-10N west
of 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to
extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of
Mexico basin. In the Gulf, the ridge is being anchored by a 1020
mb center of high pressure near 27N85W that provides variable
light winds in the NE basin. Moderate return flow dominates
elsewhere, except within 90 nm off the western Yucatan Peninsula
where a heat trough locally tighten the pres gradient to support E-NE
fresh wind. No major changes are expected during the next two
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a weak tropical wave
with axis near 75W. Strong deep layer wind shear across the
central Caribbean hinders in part the development of convection
nearby the wave. Please see the tropical waves section for more
details. The presence of the wave in the central basin tightens
the gradient of pres and support a broad region of moderate to
strong trades S of 18N between 68W and 82W, except along the coast
of Colombia where winds increase to near-gale force. Otherwise,
scattered showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the northern
Panama, Costa Rica and west Honduras coasts. The tropical wave
will continue to be the dominant feature over the next two days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the
Island suppressing the development of convection tonight. Stable
conditions are expected to prevail through Thu afternoon. Model
guidance indicates the development of showers Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are the two tropical waves
discussed in the section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1028
mb center of high pres SW of the Azores near 32N32W. A tight pres
gradient between this ridge and lower pres associated with the
monsoon trough support fresh to strong N flow within 270 nm off
the Mauritania and Western Sahara coasts.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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