[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from near 13N35W to 03N36W, moving west at 20 knots
over the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in a broad moderately
moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields
between 32W and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
12N between 31W and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 17N56W to 07N57W, moving west at 20 to 25 knots
over the last 24 hours. The wave is embedded in an environment of
low to moderate moisture, with Saharan dust evident in Meteosat
imagery. The wave is also embedded in an elongated 700 mb trough
between 52W and 64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from
11N to 14N between 56W and 62W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from near 21N80W to 09N82W, moving west at 15 to 20 knots within
the last 24 hours. This wave is embedded in an environment of low
to moderate moisture with very subtle 700 mb troughing in the
region. Scattered thunderstorms are within 300 nm west of the wave
axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to
08N34W, continuing west of a topical wave near 07N37W to 09N56W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 11N east of 18W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of either side of
the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Climatologically persistent surface ridging across the central
Atlantic continues to extend westward over the Florida Peninsula
through a 1019 mb surface high center near 27N84W and across the
Texas Gulf coast. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
cover the Gulf basin, except for moderate to fresh se winds over
the nw Gulf within 180 nm of the Texas coast, and within 180 nm nw
of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A diffluent
environment aloft supports isolated thunderstorms across the
eastern portion of the basin today. Very little change in the
synoptic pattern is forecast over the next couple of days. A
tropical wave over the western Caribbean may bring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche on
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging and lower
pressures over Colombia supports fresh to locally strong trades
over the majority of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere. The Caribbean is mainly void of
convection, except for a small batch of showers and thunderstorms
rapidly crossing the southeastern Caribbean, and convection over
the southwestern Caribbean associated with the monsoon trough.
Additional showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
including Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize are supported by a
tropical wave. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more
details. Over the next 24 hours the western Caribbean wave will
exit the basin. An ill defined central Atlantic tropical wave
will lose amplitude as it crosses the Leeward Islands tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Surface observations and Meteosat imagery indicate Saharan dust
is over Hispaniola today. This combined with an environment of low
to moderate moisture is inhibiting shower and thunderstorm
activity. This pattern will persist through at least Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad ridge axis extends from a 1026 mb high centered near
32N31W across the central and western Atlantic south of 31N and
north of 15N. A cold front north of the area of discussion over
the central Atlantic will near our northern border along 31N
tonight. Isolated to scattered moderate convection will be
possible over our northern waters of the central Atlantic to the
south of this front over the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, two
tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LATTO
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