[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16N34W 10N37W 04N38W,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
in the ITCZ, isolated moderate from 05N to 12N between 36W and
45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving
toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 21N65W,
through the Windward Passage, to 17N69W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 17N to 22N between 68W
and 75W, around Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
to 25N between 60W and 67W.

An inland tropical wave is along 95W from 19N in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N24W and 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from
08N29W to 09N38W 07N50W and 07N58W along the coast of Guyana.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 08N to 09N between
51W and 54W. widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 03N to 10N between 20W and 33W. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 13N southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N
northward between Florida and 93W.

An upper level trough is inland in Mexico, along 27N106W 18N101W.

A surface ridge passes through south Florida near 27N/28N, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the lower Texas coast of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Harlingen, Weslaco, McAllen, Edinburg, Alice, at
the NAS in Kingsville and in Corpus Christi. from LOUISIANA to
Florida: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving
toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 21N65W,
through the Windward Passage, to 17N69W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 17N to 22N between 68W
and 75W, around Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
to 25N between 60W and 67W.

Upper level NE wind flow is covering Hispaniola.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery, from 14N northward between the Windward Passage
and 80W, and from 16N northward between 80W and 85W.

An upper level trough extends from the southwestern corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, into parts of
the eastern Pacific Ocean that are adjacent to Mexico and
Guatemala. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N
to 18N between 82W and 90W including in parts of Central America,
and from 20N to 24N between 84W and 92W in the Gulf of Mexico and
the Yucatan Channel.

A weak upper level shear axis extends from eastern sections of
Cuba toward Jamaica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate,
and weakening, within 60 NM to 90 NM to the south of Cuba between
77W and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 06/0000
UTC...scattered cumulonimbus clouds/MVFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...Barahona: cumulonimbus clouds in nearly all directions,
except from the S and SW. Santo Domingo: light rainshowers and
thunder. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago:
rainshowers and thunder. Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of NE wind flow at the start, followed by a
trough with the cyclonic wind flow around the now-current 21N65W
cyclonic circulation center, followed by southwest wind flow at
the end of the day. South and southwest wind flow will cover
Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that day one will consist of northeast-to-east wind flow.
Day two will consist of an inverted trough moving across
Hispaniola at the start of the day, followed by southeast wind
flow for the rest of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that day one will consist of southeast wind flow. Day two will
consist of northeast-to-east wind flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in
Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.03 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, 09N79W in Panama,
beyond 10N85W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 07N to 10N between 75W and 77W in Colombia
and in its coastal waters.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N15W, through 28N18W in the
Canary Islands. A shear axis extends from 28N18W to 26N33W. An
upper level inverted trough continues from 26N33W to 21N36W,
16N39W, and to 13N43W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge passes
through 32N26W, to a 1027 MB high pressure center that is near
30N36W, 28N46W, 28N62W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and
beyond south Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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