[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 15N-04N,
moving westward at 15 knots. This wave coincides with a weak
inverted trough at 700 mb. Abundant Saharan dust and dry air
continues to surround this wave and is inhibiting convection.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, from 21N-12N,
moving westward at 20 knots. Broad inverted troughing at 700 mb
is noted in model guidance in conjunction with this wave.
Satellite precipitable water imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in deep layer moisture. Radar imagery from Puerto Rico
shows scattered showers from 15N-21N between 64W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 09N20W to 08N28W. The ITCZ extends from
08N28W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave
near 09N38W to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Isolated
moderate convection is off the coast of west Africa from 05N-11N
between 21W-26W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ
from 06N-10N between 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends across the basin along 28N. 05-15
knot SE flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is over western tip of Cuba, the Yucatan Channel,and
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate convection is over
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and north Florida. In the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf
near 27N88W enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours
for convection to move west to the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
see above for more details. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is mostly inland over north Venezuela, and north
Colombia, from 05N-11N between 63W-77W. Isolated moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua, and eastern Honduras. In the upper levels, a small
upper level low is centered over the Atlantic near 23N63W
enhancing convection north of the Leeward Islands. Expect the
tropical wave to be the dominate features over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
island. Daytime heating coupled with a tropical wave will give
the island continued precipitation for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the Tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. Isolated moderate
convection is over the southern Bahamas. A large 1027 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 30N37W producing fair
weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level low
north of the Leeward Islands near 23N63W to move west with
showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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