[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been added to the surface map
analysis of 06/0600 utc, along 24W/25W from 15N southward, based
on long-duration satellite imagery loops, and SUNY diagnostic
data. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from
07N to 09N between 26W and 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. This wave was re-
located based on SUNY diagnostic data and 700 MB wind data.
Convective precipitation: in the ITCZ, isolated moderate from 05N
to 12N between 40W and 45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving
toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N65W,
through the Windward Passage, to 17N70W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 20N to 22N between 70W and
71W. isolated moderate from 15N to 22N between 70W and 76W around
Hispaniola Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other
possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N to 26N between 60W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N between 26W
and 42W, to 07N48W, to 09N50W and 09N53W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward
between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 25N
northward between Florida and Texas/Mexico.

An upper level trough is inland in Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow
covers Mexico from 15N to 27N.

A surface ridge passes through south Florida near 27N/28N, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the lower Texas coast of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco, McAllen, Edinburg, in many parts of the
area from Falfurrias to Rockport, in Victoria, in Tomball and in
Conroe. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the Lake Charles metropolitan area, in
Slidell, and at the West Plains Regional Airport near New Orleans.
Mississippi: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Alabama: MVFR in Dothan. Florida:
IFR in Crestview. MVFR in Destin. LIFR and fog in Perry. The fog
has lifted in Brooksville, VFR now. MVFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is moving
toward the area of an upper level trough that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N65W,
through the Windward Passage, to 17N70W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 20N to 22N between 70W and
71W. isolated moderate from 15N to 22N between 70W and 76W around
Hispaniola Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other
possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N to 26N between 60W and 70W.

Upper level NE wind flow is covering Hispaniola.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery, from 13N northward between 73W and 85W.

An upper level trough extends from the southwestern corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, into parts of
the eastern Pacific Ocean that are adjacent to Mexico and
Guatemala. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 23N to 25N between 86W and 87W off the coast
of Cuba. isolated moderate from 12N to 18N between 82W and 90W
including in parts of Central America.

A weak upper level shear axis extends from eastern sections of
Cuba toward Jamaica. Convective precipitation: any precipitation
is weakening, as it moves away from Cuba, now about 150 NM to the
southwest of Cuba.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI as of 06/0000
UTC...scattered cumulonimbus clouds/MVFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...Barahona: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR. Santo Domingo/
La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago: IFR with fog.
Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of NE wind flow at the start, followed by a
trough with the cyclonic wind flow around the now-current 21N65W
cyclonic circulation center, followed by southwest wind flow at
the end of the day. South and southwest wind flow will cover
Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that day one will consist of northeast-to-east wind flow.
Day two will consist of an inverted trough moving across
Hispaniola at the start of the day, followed by southeast wind
flow for the rest of the day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that day one will consist of southeast wind flow. Day two will
consist of northeast-to-east wind flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in
Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.03 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 08N72W in Colombia, beyond 08N86W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 06N to 12N between 74W and
86W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N14W, to 26N16W just to the
south of the Canary Islands. A shear axis extends from 26N16W to
26N34W. An upper level inverted trough continues from 26N34W to
21N36W, 16N39W, and to 13N43W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from
a 1026 MB high pressure center that is near 31N37W, to 29N49W,
27N64W, across the northwestern Bahamas, and beyond south Florida,
into the Gulf of Mexico.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANE WARNING WARNING WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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