[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is along the Western Africa coast extending from
16N17W to 06N17N moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. A very large
area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east
of the wave axis from 09N-20N between 05W-15W.

Tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic from 20N39W to 08N39W
moving W at 25 kt. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the
wave environment north of 10N. The wave axis is best defined at
700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough from 06N-09N between 28W-31W.

Tropical wave is over the Eastern Caribbean from 20N60W to
10N61W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a moderate moist
environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at 700 mb. Scattered
moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 09N-13N
between 54W-60W.

Tropical wave is moving over the Western Caribbean and Central
America from 18N87W to 08N87W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in
a moist environment as depicted by the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water Imagery. The wave axis is best defined at the surface.
Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave
axis south of 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
08N30W to 08N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 08N41W to 08N52W to the coast of Venezuela near
09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 27W-
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered over the Florida
Panhandle near 30N87W. A surface trough extends from SW Georgia
near 31N84W to the low center to SE Louisiana near 30N90W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
over most of the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 92W, to include the
NE Gulf States, Florida, and W Cuba. Areas of localized flooding
are likely. Mostly fair weather is over the NW Gulf to include
the Texas coast. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over Alabama near 33N87W. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the surface low to drift NW with continued convection over a
large portion of the northern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere,
15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate
convection is over Haiti, E Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
Guatemala. Further south, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N, Panama, and Costa
Rica, mostly due to the monsoon trough. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the W Caribbean, while an upper level
low is centered over the E Caribbean near 17N65W. Upper level
subsidence is over most of the Caribbean Sea. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the SW Caribbean to continue to have
convection, while the SE Caribbean gets additional convection
due to the tropical wave currently along 60W/61W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated moderate convection is presently over Haiti. Mostly
fair weather is over the Dominican Republic mostly due to strong
upper level subsidence. Expect mostly fair weather over
Hispaniola Wed.

 ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N70W to 26N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is east of the Bahamas from 24N-
30N between 69W-75W. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
29N65W. In the upper levels, and area of diffluence is from 30N-
33N between 56W-60W with scattered moderate convection. Expect
in 24 hours for a cold front to dip into the central Atlantic
near 31N57W with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net