[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100504
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N17W to 17N17W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing that has emerged
off the coast of West Africa between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-13N between 11W-18W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N41W to 20N41W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb troughing as depicted in the
global models between 38W-45W and a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity in the vicinity of the wave axis near 20N. Isolated
moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 39W-43W.

Tropical wave extends from 11N62W to 20N62W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 55W-66W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 10N89W to 18N88W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 87W-92W
on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored to the
northeast over the SW North Atlc near 24N76W. No significant deep
convection is noted with the wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
07N30W to 07N40W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N40W to 07N45W to 10N54W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 28W-36W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 49W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery anchored over
the SE CONUS providing much of the Gulf with diffluent flow aloft
E of 93W. Beneath the ridging...a low to mid-level area of low
pressure remains across the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters focused on
a 1010 mb low centered near 31N87W and a 1011 mb low centered near
30N91W. Given the low to middle level moisture convergence...and
upper level diffluence...scattered showers and tstms are occurring
N of 28N between 85W-92W. Farther south...the upper level
diffluence remains in place however the mid-level support is
slightly weaker resulting in scattered showers and isolated tstms S
of 27N between 81W-89W...including the Florida Straits and SE Gulf
waters. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW
North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf waters
providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the
influence of the low pressure area impacting the NE Gulf region.
Across the NE Gulf...moderate to fresh S-SW winds are expected
through Wednesday night. As the low pressure area across the SE
CONUS weakens through Wednesday night...surface ridging will
gradually lift northward with the axis anchoring along 27N by
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Most of the active weather in the Caribbean basin is occurring
across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel region as
northeasterly diffluent flow continues to support scattered
showers and isolated tstms N of 21N this evening. The other
important feature is a tropical wave along 62W moving across the
eastern Caribbean providing isolated showers and tstms across the
waters E of 70W. This activity is likely enhanced by favorable
dynamics aloft due to the presence of an upper level low centered
near 17N66W. The remainder of the basin is under relatively dry
conditions aloft with mostly clear skies and fair conditions
prevailing and expected through Wednesday. Trades will range from
moderate to strong with the strongest winds generally remaining S
of 15N between 70W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low is centered to the east of the island near
17N66W that will move middle to upper level instability into the
region for Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are anticipated
as the upper level feature moves westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level shortwave is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 26N72W that supports isolated showers
and tstms from 24N-29N between 70W-75W. Otherwise...the remainder
of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of weak surface
ridging anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N66W. To the
northeast...an upper level trough extends from 38N58W to 32N66W
and supports a stationary front analyzed along 32N between 55W-
68W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 29N between
53W-64W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure
well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from
the Azores SW to 29N47W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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