[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is coming off the Western Africa coast extending
from 06N-16N with axis near 16W, which is forecast to move at 10
kt within the next 24 hours. The northern region of the wave is
being engulfed by Saharan dry air and the wave, in general, is in
a neutral to strong deep layer wind shear environment that limits
the convection to isolated showers from 08N-11N E of 18W.

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-20N with axis
near 35W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. Satellite
derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable to neutral deep
layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air and dust cover
most of the wave environment, thus in part hindering convection at
the time.

Tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from 10N-
20N with axis near 57W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is in a favorable
to neutral deep layer wind shear region. However, Saharan dry air
and dust cover most of the wave environment, in part limiting the
convection to scattered showers from 09N-13N between 54W and 58W.

Tropical wave is moving across Central America extending from
07N-17N with axis near 87W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. Satellite derived data indicate the wave is mainly in an
unfavorable deep layer wind shear region while water vapor
imagery show dry air subsidence in the Bay of Honduras. Shallow
moisture in the NW Caribbean may support isolated showers W of 85W
this afternoon.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N25W to 08N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 08N41W to 08N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N62W.
Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 20W and 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge remains anchored over the SE CONUS providing
the north-central and eastern Gulf with diffluent flow aloft.
Beneath the upper ridge...a 1013 mb center of low pressure is
centered near 29N86W along with a surface trough extending from
31N84W to the low center to 27N91W. This area of low pressure is
supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms N of 24N E of 92W.
Fresh to strong S-SW flow is S and E of the trough while moderate
to fresh NW-W winds are N and W of the trough. A tropical wave in
the E Pacific waters with axis near 95W extends northward to 19N,
thus generating scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche S of 21N
W of 92W. Otherwise...a surface ridge axis extends from the SW
North Atlc region across the Florida Straits to the SE Gulf waters
providing generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds outside of the
influence of the low pressure area impacting the N-NE Gulf region.
The surface low will move NW over southern Alabama by Wednesday
morning, however showers associated with it will linger in the
N-NE basin through late Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level low in over NW Caribbean waters, which along
with shallow moisture in this region support isolated showers over
W Cuba and adjacent waters while a tropical wave crossing Central
America support similar shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered showers and tstms are within 90 nm off the southern
coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama associated with
the E Pacific monsoon trough. Another upper level low, this one
better defined, is centered in the far NE Caribbean and support
isolated showers and tstms across Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands
and basin waters N of 15N E of 68W. The remainder of the basin is
under relatively dry conditions at the surface and aloft as
indicated by CIRA LPW and Water Vapor imagery. A tight pressure
gradient between ridging across the N-NE basin and lower pressure
in the S-SW region, fresh to near gale-force winds developed
across the central basin S of 17N; the strongest winds being along
the coast of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong dry air subsidence is still noted in Water Vapor Imagery,
which is providing the Island with mostly stable and dry
conditions. Fair weather and clear skies are expected through
Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough over the Florida Peninsula and
seaboard support isolated showers W of 76W, including the northern
Bahamas. To the east a well marked area of diffluent flow aloft
support a cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms from 23N-30N
between 68W and 74W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge associated with high pressure
well to the N-NE of the discussion area with axis extending from
the Azores SW to 24N66W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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