[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean from
15N-18N between 74W-78W, and from 16N-18N between 77W-79W.
Winds are 25 to 35 kt, and seas 10 TO 15 ft. A closed cyclonic
circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a tropical
storm warning has not been issued at this time. The tropical
wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18 kt. The
tropical wave extends from 22N77W to 10N77W. Numerous strong
convection is mostly S of Jamaica from 14N-19N between 75W-79W.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over the NW Caribbean.
The potential exists for a tropical storm to form later today.
Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is
listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
following area: CANARIAS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N22W
to 06N23W moving west 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 07N-12N
between 26W-31W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N40W to 07N42W moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 35W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W to 11N23W to 10N30W to 13N42W to 09N52W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South
America at 08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
10N between 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over
the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over S Florida and
the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 83W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche S of
20N W of 93W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is
centered over the N Gulf near 30N90W. A small upper level low is
centered N of the Bahamas near 29N78W enhancing the nocturnal
convection over S Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an
increase of convection over the SE Gulf, Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula due to the approaching tropical Wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is the strong tropical wave and gale
moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-
25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 10 kt winds
over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 06N-11N
between 74W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered S of Jamaica near 17N76W. Expect the tropical wave/
gale to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea
for the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, mostly fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect little
change over the next 24 hours as the tropical wave moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is north of the Bahamas from 27N-
30N between 75W-78W mostly due the small upper level low
centered near 29N78W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the
western Atlantic near 30N61W. Two tropical waves are over the
tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels,
a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 25N51W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with
convection for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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