[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 16.3N 80.8W at 02/1800 UTC
or about 185 nm S of Grand Cayman moving W at 19 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 14N-21N between 75W-81W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N26W to 18N24W moving W at 20 kt.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb low centered near 09N27W embedded
within the Monsoon Trough axis and troughing between 21W-34W.
Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis
near 13N...however a stronger complex of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is farther SW from 07N-12N between 27W-
33W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N44W to 19N42W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing as depicted in global
model analyses between 40W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 14N-17N between 42W-45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from near 11N23W to 11N34W to 13N43W
to 09N52W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N52W to 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from
03N-14N between 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the lower
Mississippi River valley near 33N89W that is providing much of the
Gulf with NE to E flow aloft maintaining an overall stable
environment. However...given instability and possible embedded
weak areas of diffluence in the ridging...isolated showers and
tstms are occurring across the SE Gulf S of 27N E of 84W and
across the NE and north-central coast N of 29N between 82W-94W. At
the surface...a ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc region
along 28N/29N to the Texas coast generating light to moderate NE
to E winds. Little change is expected through Wednesday night in
the synoptic pattern. Tropical Storm Earl will approach the
Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize by Wednesday night tracking
W-NW into the SW Gulf waters by Thursday night into Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The primary focus is Tropical Storm Earl currently tracking W
across the western Caribbean. Elsewhere...fresh to strong trades
trail to the east of Earl between 67W-78W due to the pressure
gradient and high pressure anchored to the north across the SW
North Atlc region. Trades decrease E of 67W into moderate to fresh
breeze levels as mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon. Earl
is expected to approach the Yucatan peninsula and coast of Belize
by Wednesday night bringing numerous showers and scattered
tstms...and potentially localized flooding and mud slides to
portions of Honduras...Guatemala...Belize...and the Yucatan
peninsula during the week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently...fair weather and mostly clear skies prevail and are
expected during the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper level ridge is
anchored over the island near 19N71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak upper level low is centered north of the NW Bahamas near
28N78W with a trough axis extending S-SW to a broad base over
western Cuba. Middle to upper level instability and lifting
dynamics are sufficient to generate isolated showers and tstms
across the SW North Atlc waters generally W of 75W this afternoon.
Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N69W.
Farther east...the ridge broadens covering much of the eastern and
central Atlc discussion waters north of 20N anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered S of the Azores near 35N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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