[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning has been issued for the central Caribbean within
90 nm NE semicircle, and within 45 nm SW semicircle of 16.5N75W.
Winds are 30 to 40 kt, and seas 9 TO 14 ft. A closed cyclonic
circulation at the surface is presently lacking, thus a tropical
storm warning has not been issued at this time. The tropical
wave is moving west across the Caribbean basin at 18 kt. The
tropical wave extends from 23N75W to 10N75W. Numerous strong
convection is mostly SE of Jamaica from 15N-18N between 74W-78W.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere over Hispaniola, Cuba,
and the NW Caribbean. The potential exists for a tropical storm
to form within the next 48 hours. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast...that is
listed under the following links...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the
following area: CANARIAS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 16N21W
to 06N22W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-12N
between 23W-29W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N39W to 07N41W moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in
the global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 36W-45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W to 11N30W to 13N40W to 10N46W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of South America at
08N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 06N-10N between 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis is over the northern Gulf of Mexico along
30N from N florida to E Texas. 10-15 kt SE winds are noted over
the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over S Florida and
the Straits of Florida from 23N-27N E of 83W. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche S of
20N. In the upper levels...an upper level high is centered over
the N Gulf near 30N90W. A small upper level low is centered N of
the Bahamas near 29N78W enhancing the nocturnal convection over S
Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
convection over the SE Gulf, Cuba, and the Yucatan
Peninsula due to the approaching tropical Wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus tonight is the strong tropical wave and gale
moving through the central Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere, 10-
25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with 10 kt winds
over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over N Colombia and the SW Caribbean from 06N-11N
between 74W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered S of Jamaica near 17N76W. Expect the tropical wave/
gale to be the dominate weather producer over the Caribbean Sea
for the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, scattered showers linger over Hispaniola, especially
over Haiti. Expect gradual clearing over Hispaniola over the
next 24 hours as the tropical wave moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is north of the Bahamas from 27N-
30N between 75W-78W mostly due the small upper level low
centered near 29N78W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the
western Atlantic near 30N62W. Two tropical waves are over the
tropical Atlantic. See above. Also of note in the upper levels,
a large upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 25N51W. Expect the tropical waves to move west with
convection for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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