[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N
OF 25N AND W OF 92W. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURES OVER S-
CENTRAL U.S AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS SE US AND E GULF. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N42W TO 10N44W...MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE
OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 09N20W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS
LAST POINT TO 05N42W TO 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WHOLE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS
THE E GULF ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 26N84W ANS AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N82W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NW PORTION...WHERE A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE E GULF TO MOVE N WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE W
GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N60W TO 13N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
61W-63W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AS IT MOVES W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING JUST TO
THE N OF THE ISLAND. WHILE A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE
FAR W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 73W. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED
FROM 27N80W TO 31N72W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
26N69W TO 31N63W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
36N31W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF
THE BASIN FROM 24N31W TO 26N17W TO 31N10W WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
FAR E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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