[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE IS FORECAST TO START ON SUN 1800 UTC FOR THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO S OF 21N AND W OF 95W. WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N46W TO 09N47W...MOVING W 10 KT. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 10N21W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS
LAST POINT TO 06N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 08N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 08N-11N
BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
AT 29N96W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE NE COAST OF TEXAS AND SW
LOUISIANA...N OF 28N BETWEEN 92W-96W. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A GALE WARNING
IS OUT FOR THE SW GULF IN 24 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR
31N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N94W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA
...AND PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AIRMASS HEATING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N61W TO 14N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...S HONDURAS...AND SW
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NE TO E FLOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO REACH THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ALL FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC HAVE MOVED N OF 31N. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 28N59W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A 1030 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W WITH FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N10W TO 24N20W TO 23N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION. A
VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF SPAIN SUPPORTING THE
FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES E. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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