[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER
TEXAS/N MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NW GULF GIVING THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 92W STRONG WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N46W 8N54W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 10N W OF
3W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-32W AND FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 43W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N-NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS INTO
THE GULF ALONG 27N86W TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA W OF 90W AND E TEXAS N OF 28N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N-28N W OF 94W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OVER THE NE GULF AS A WARM FRONT TODAY.
FRESH TO STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE E GULF MON AND MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOT THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N E OF
74W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE
SW GULF S OF 10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA AND
INLAND OVER PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO JUST OVER THE ISLAND.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S TO JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING A DYING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N61W TO 28N69W AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE W THAT
BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N71W TO ACROSS FLORIDA FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N59W IS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO 12N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 18N...FROM 16N-18N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 59W-62W.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 27N58W TO 30N52W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N10W ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N24W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
23N32W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE W
ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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