[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N21W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N36W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N40W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA S OF 11N E OF 8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-35W AND FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N-
NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
OVER THE W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 25N91W. THE SE
SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING
N OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
27N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 25N91W WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO 27N88W WHERE
IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY. THE E GULF IS DRY SO NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER TODAY. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
SE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SAT
AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW WATERS ON SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN
62W-69W AND OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY OTHER SHOWERS. THIS IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST N OF THE ISLAND
AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FURTHER S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S TO N OF HISPANIOLA
SUPPORTING A DYING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG
29N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA FLORIDA NEAR FORT PIERCE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N
BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N56W AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
55W-60W AND FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 59W-62W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
26N58W TO 29N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED THROUGH 32N13W ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N27W TO 25N39W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
29N44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS TO A 1017 MB HIGH 28N63W. THE W ATLC REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SAT WITH THE
MERGED FRONT STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM
32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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