[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N33W TO 16N32W MOVING W AT 5 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N AND ACTS AS
THE FOCAL POINT FOR A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BROKEN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-36W AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N20W TO 09N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 08N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N35W TO 11N48W.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N46W TO 17N46W SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. TO THE NW...RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS S OF 30N WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SW THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. WITH
DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT AND DIFFERENCE
IN DEWPOINTS ARE DETAILED IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW GULF.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N91W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT E-NE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE W OF 90W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N69W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER AREA
OF SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WEST OF JAMAICA IN
THE VICINITY OF 18N80W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE N-
NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 12N DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N/10N
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW S OF 13N BETWEEN
72W-75W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N69W WITH MOSTLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT FOCUSED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE REGION AND PUERTO RICO.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL CURRENTLY WITH STABLE AND RELATIVELY
DRY N-NE FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SHORTWAVE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N78W SW TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 28N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N61W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 28N63W AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W TO 20N65W. IN ADDITION...A STATIONARY
FRONT LIES FROM 32N43W WESTWARD TO 30N55W TO NEAR BERMUDA
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-32N
BETWEEN 54W-64W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF
20N BETWEEN 53W-62W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 29N43W
AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 28N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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