[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N33W 14N34W...TO A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N34W...TO 08N34W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 23N32W 17N35W 08N37W...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...AND
FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 10N17W TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N19W TO 10N31W...BROKEN UP BY THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO 07N36W
AND 04N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS INLAND. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ARE
PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT EVENTUALLY
CURVES ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA
CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PART OF THAT SAME WIND
FLOW CURVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. ONE COLD
FRONT THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W...TO 30N78W...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W.
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N95W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N95W...THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO 27N100W IN MEXICO AND 29N105W IN MEXICO JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N90W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO
COLD FRONTS.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N92W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 22N64W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO LA PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N64W...TO
28N63W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM HISPANIOLA-TO-THE-GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA...RELATED TO THE 28N61W-TO-GUAJIRA COLOMBIA TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE NEAR CUBA...AND AN
APPROACHING INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE EAST.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W
AND 83W IN THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.40 IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO...0.24 IN TEGUCIGALPA...0.20 IN BERMUDA...0.06
IN TRINIDAD...0.03 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.02 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 22N64W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO LA PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N64W...TO
28N63W AND 26N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.

A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 19N TO 25N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 59W/60W FROM 11N TO 18N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N56W 11N56W 13N58W 14N59W 15N61W 15N63W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N TO 18N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 43W AND
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N52W 21N53W 18N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 30N44W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 30N44W TO 30N55W...AND TO
BERMUDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N51W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 31N23W...BEYOND THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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