[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N34W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 29W-35W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 28W-33W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
08N20W TO 09N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 10N46W TO 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SW TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. TO THE NW...RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS S OF 30N
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER SW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W.
WITH DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT AND
DIFFERENCE IN DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED IN SHIP...BUOY...AND
OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW GULF.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N90W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT E-NE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE W OF 90W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
64W-70W. ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SW OF
JAMAICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE N-NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW
S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-75W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL
WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N69W WITH MOSTLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT FOCUSED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE REGION AND PUERTO RICO.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL CURRENTLY WITH STABLE AND RELATIVELY
DRY N-NE FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES. THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N79W S-SW TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-
78W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N63W THAT SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N65W. IN ADDITION...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM 32N46W
WESTWARD TO 31N60W TO NEAR BERMUDA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 53W-64W...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE N OF 21N BETWEEN 52W-62W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1021 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 29N45W AND THE OTHER CENTERED
NEAR 29N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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