[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 15N30W TO 07N32W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A TILTED 700 MB TROUGH LOCATED BETWEEN 27W-
34W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
08N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N36W
AND CONTINUES TO 09N61W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 30N84W
TO 25N84W TO 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS TO
THE E OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS W CUBA. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA CENTERED
BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 23N91W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS DEPICTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE DISSIPATING. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF
WATERS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER W CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO REACHING
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 20N AND W OF 82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN
69W-74W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING. WITH
THIS...AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINLY ENHANCED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 19N66W TO 29N61W. THIS FEATURE IS RELATED TO AN
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N64W
TO 19N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF
THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 22N. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT
ABOUT 210 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 18N55W TO
12N58W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N43W AND ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
31N22W. A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONED TO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 23N32W TO 29N14W. A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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