[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N28W 12N29W 07N32W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...AND FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19N50W 15N52W
10N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 10N TO 16N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W 08N30W
08N38W AND 07N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...FROM 05N
TO 08N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. A COLD FRONT
STILL IS INLAND...MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
81W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W IN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO 25N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N86W JUST OFF
THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N92W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR
23N102W.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N65W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 22N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA ALONG 73W/74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND
FROM 12N TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
81W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF THE 28N65W-COLOMBIA 73W/74W TROUGH. PART OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH...AND PART IS
RELATED TO THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ABOUT
150 NM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...STARTING AROUND 18 HOURS INTO
THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FROM 70W WESTWARD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FROM 70W EASTWARD...WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
EVENTUALLY WILL BE IN THE MONA PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/A RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL
END WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W 09N80W BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA  FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 07N TO
09N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.43 IN
BERMUDA...0.21 IN TRINIDAD...0.17 IN CURACAO...0.14 IN SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE...0.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE
BAHAMAS...0.02 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.01 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 28N65W...TO
22N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ALONG 73W/74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W TO 30N57W...
CURVING TO 26N61W AND 20N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO
29N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W..AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND
63W. WIDELY MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N63W...TO A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W 22N67W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS/OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS FROM 180 NM TO
240 NM TO THE WEST OF AFRICA FROM NORTHERN SENEGAL NORTHWARD. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 31N11W 29N19W 24N31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N37W. IT IS
SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1023
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N23W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W TO 25N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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