[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 15N28W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 25W-31W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 28W-
32W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
10N20W TO 10N27W TO 06N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N34W TO 08N40W TO 08N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THESE TWO REGIONS. A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGIONS NEAR 30N84W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED WEST OF THE MAIN FRONT AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO 26N92W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WEST OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N93W. GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-NE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE BASIN TO THE EAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N71W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO A BASE OVER
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 07N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ANOTHER AREA
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 77W-81W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE N-NE FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZE CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N71W. ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ISLAND HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A FAIRLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO NE WINDS ALOFT...AND LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT ANALYZED
NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE AN AREA OF DRIER AIR SKIRTS
E-NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF 80W IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
73W-79W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N65W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR
24N62W TO 29N58W TO 32N49W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN
55W-65W...AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W-55W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF 32N BY LATE THURSDAY AS CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 29N41W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR
31N29W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 32N09W
W-SW TO 24N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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