[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N26W TO 07N29W...MOVING W AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-31W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
HIGH MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N23W TO 07N29W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
09N40W TO 11N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF FROM 30N87W TO 21N87W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH W TO
NW WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE W TO NW
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN A
COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE N FL
BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF REMAINING
IN THE WARM SECTOR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N87W AND EXTENDS TO BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PANAMA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
13N TO 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...AND FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W
AND 69W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT SOUTHERLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS OFFSHORE GA AND NW OVER THE W ATLC N OF OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION. THIS FRONT SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS N
OF 28N W OF 77W. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
30N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH HAS OPENED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N69W TO 27N71W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST...EXTENDING FROM
29N58W TO 20N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N. TO THE SE...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N49W TO 11N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 13N. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N13W TO 26N25W TO 27N35W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N39W. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
60W...AND OFFSHORE N FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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