[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N29W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 24W-32W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N23W TO 07N29W TO 07N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 09N37W TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N10W TO
11N16W...AND FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PROGRESSING OVER THE SE CONUS THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF
A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. THIS
PARTIALLY OCCLUDED LOW EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W SOUTHWARD
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND EAST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES IN
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH LOCALLY LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE NOTED
IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS N OF 26N BETWEEN
87W-95W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF
THE FRONT...WHILE GENTLE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST
OF THE FRONT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THEN MOVING NE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 23N68W TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 63W-
72W...INCLUDING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...N-NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE
ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
PREVAILING E OF 71W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 33N80W MOVING NE THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 34N70W SW TO THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER NEAR 31N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OFFSHORE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-79W. FARTHER EAST...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N68W THAT SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N62W TO 28N59W. WHILE MOST OF
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 55W-67W. THIS AREA FALLS
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND CENTRAL ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N41W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE
RIDGE IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 32N12W SW TO 27N26W TO 28N33W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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