[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N28W TO 11N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 23W-31W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ REGION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-11N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
07N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N32W TO 06N40W TO 09N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W...FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 27W-
43W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W. THE WESTERN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
09N50W-15N47W AND LIES BENEATH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PROGRESSING OVER THE SE CONUS THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF
A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. THIS
PARTIALLY OCCLUDED LOW EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W SOUTHWARD
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND EAST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NE GULF WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES IN
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH LOCALLY LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE NOTED
IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS N OF 25N W OF
88W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF THE
FRONT...WHILE GENTLE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF
THE FRONT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THEN MOVING NE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 24N68W TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY N OF 14N
BETWEEN 63W-71W...INCLUDING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...N-NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE
ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION...THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
PREVAILING E OF 71W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 32N81W MOVING NE THIS EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 33N70W SW TO THE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER NEAR 31N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N68W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N67W TO
29N64W. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 58W-
69W. THIS AREA FALLS WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 53W-67W. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N41W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM
32N14W SW TO 28N26W TO 31N36W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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