[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 27N BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THE 18Z MAP WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N25W TO 04N27W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE
EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 07N52W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N29W AND CONTINUES TO 07N42W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 18W-22W AND 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
18N91W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT
MAINLY E OF 86W AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND SE CONUS. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY MAINLY
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREVAILING
BETWEEN 63W-72W AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E WITH CONVECTION
PREVAILING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND
AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY W OF 78W SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N67W EXTENDS
ITS TROUGH TO NEAR 33N63W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO
20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 60W-69W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 10N47W WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N42W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR AREA
IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N35W TO 29N26W TO 31N18W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net