[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 13N27W TO 07N29W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN
25W-31W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-15N BETWEEN 24W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
09N23W TO 08N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO
11N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REACHING THE
GULF WATERS NEAR 30N85W TO 27N85W TO 21N90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN EXCEPT E OF 86W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IS
REPORTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE E GULF IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS REACHING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN
AFFECTING W CUBA AND THE WATERS W OF 84W. AN ELONGATED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND MAINLY ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING. A
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 78W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO 30N67W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM 20N63W TO 29N57W. THIS FEATURE IS RELATED TO AN ELONGATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE
IN THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT ABOUT 350 NM
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N54W TO 11N55W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W AND ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N32W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N35W TO 26N21W TO 31N10W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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