[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N16W TO 18N19W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
12N30W...10N36W AND 11N42W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 11N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PATRICIA THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N102W 23N97W 26N90W...BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN
95W AND THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO EASTERN PANAMA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N70W AND 24N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT WEAKENS NEAR 13N71W IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...18N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N66W TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N69W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ALONG 22N84W IN NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO 18N86W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
16N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N70W AND 24N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT WEAKENS NEAR 13N71W IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W TO
NORTHWESTERN HAITI. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE
22/2300 UTC OBSERVATION SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE 23/0000 UTC OBSERVATION FOR BARAHONA
SHOWED FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER LA ROMANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
A TROUGH WILL START FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND
WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 17N68W
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF ALTERNATING 6-HOUR PERIODS OF TIME
DURING WHICH EITHER THE TROUGH IS MORE DOMINANT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER INFLUENCE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS...OR
VICE-VERSA...THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT THAN THE TROUGH.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 57W. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
21N43W 15N48W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N55W
19N54W 15N50W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N59W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 29N52W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N65W...TO 23N68W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N68W TO NORTHWESTERN
HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO
33N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N65W
20N66W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N18W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 24N25W AND TO
22N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE WESTERN SAHARA AND IN MOROCCO FROM 21N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 09W AND 17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
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