[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
11N30W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW PRES NEAR
10N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE
ITHSMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N98W AND DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO
EXTREME NE MEXICO SUPPORTS A CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
CORPUS CHRISTI AND OUT 60 NM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 10-11 FT
WERE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT BUOYS 42002 AND 42020.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 85W WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
SE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO
EXTENDS SE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N66W AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 14N73W DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N83W TO 19N86W. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA TO 12N AND WEST OF 80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N64W TO
11N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OF 20N EXTENDING
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND AT THE
SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
GRATER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 31N72W TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREAS NEAR 31N57W TO A
1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N61W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N65W TO NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE/EXTREME EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N25W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N25W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 32N18W TO 28N23W. THE LOW WAS DROPPING
SOUTH AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WELL E OF THE LOW FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE NORTHERNMOST LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW DISSIPATES.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net