[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
11N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 09N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 32W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 32W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SE
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N98W TO 20N96W
SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
25N TO 29N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER THE WEST GULF MAINLY W OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS
SE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 75W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N66W DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM 22N84W TO 19N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 15N62W TO 11N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
31N57W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N65W TO ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW NEAR
22N69W TO 20N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER
EAST...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N25W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 24N25W.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE NORTHERNMOST LOW ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW DISSIPATES.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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