[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 17N19W...JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 11N30W...10N32W...
AND TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PATRICIA THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N102W 23N97W 26N90W...BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE EARLIER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS
ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST HAS WEAKENED. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 93W
WESTWARD. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO EASTERN PANAMA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N70W AND 24N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT WEAKENS NEAR 13N71W IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...18N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N66W TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N69W. RAINSHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS
COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...BETWEEN
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ALONG 22N84W IN NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO 17N86W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
16N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTS FROM PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N70W AND 24N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT WEAKENS NEAR 13N71W IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W TO
NORTHWESTERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS COVER THE AREA
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W NEAR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
A TROUGH WILL START FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND
WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 17N68W
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF ALTERNATING 6-HOUR PERIODS OF TIME
DURING WHICH EITHER THE TROUGH IS MORE DOMINANT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER INFLUENCE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS...OR
VICE-VERSA...THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT THAN THE TROUGH.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 57W. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
21N43W 15N48W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N55W
19N54W 15N50W.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N59W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N52W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N65W...TO 23N68W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N68W TO NORTHWESTERN
HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO
34N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND
64W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 26N66W 19N68W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N18W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N25W AND TO
23N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE WESTERN SAHARA AND IN MOROCCO FROM 21N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 09W AND 17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
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