[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 36.8N 62.7W AT 06/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 290 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
35N-40N BETWEEN 57W-67W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N37W TO 07N36W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 35W AND
40W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE S OF 10N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
12N47W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700
MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 41W-51W. A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N17W TO 07N36W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N AND E OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
23N94W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 85W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS W REACHING
THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF
TROUGHS EXTEND FROM A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FIRST IS
LOCATED FROM 28N89W TO 29N81W. S OF THIS TROUGH...A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO 26N80W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES. A
STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
23N84W TO 24N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING N OF 24N WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW IS S OF 24N.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHERE THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. AS OF 0300 UTC...A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WAS NOTICED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA W OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N80W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW FROM 30N75W TO 26N78W TO 23N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
CONTINUES MOVING NE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24N57W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W. IN
BETWEEN THESE HIGHS...A PERSISTENT 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW TO 24N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 44W-49W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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