[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 37.5N 61.0W AT 06/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 365 NM NNE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N41W TO 06N39W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 38W-44W
WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE
AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N49W TO 10N48W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 46W-54W. A MAXIMUM
IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N17W TO 07N38W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 05N-15N AND E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
23N94W EXTENDS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
25N89W TO 27N80W. S OF THIS TROUGH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM
23N84W TO 28N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
TROUGH AND FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING N OF 24N WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW
IS S OF 24N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION WHERE THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. A WEAK 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH WAS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA EXCEPT NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. MODERATE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N76W. AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN INTO THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS. TO THE S...A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW FROM 24N80W TO 28N75W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 33N74W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT MAINLY W OF 74W. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
CONTINUES MOVING NE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24N57W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N29W. IN
BETWEEN THESE HIGHS...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N48W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N49W TO THE LOW TO
31N46W. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN
32W-46W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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