[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 35.8N 64.0W AT 05/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 213 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
35N TO 40N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE LATEST FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 06N32W...
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB
TROUGHING BETWEEN 32W AND 37W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 31W AND
39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N44W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 11N46W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 07N36W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 32W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N E OF 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR 23N94W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR
31N78W. DEEP NW FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SURFACE TROUGHS CONTINUING TO ROUND THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW. AS OF 1800 UTC...ONE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...WHILE ANOTHER EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N81W TO 24N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. THE
ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF. ASIDE FROM THESE
SHOWERS...THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REFLECTION WILL MOVE NE. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF MAY PRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC IS SUPPORTING DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MODERATE
MOISTURE PREVAILS FROM JAMAICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N
TO 18N E OF 65W. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
MAY BEGIN TO BRING ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER N CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MODERATE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. AN OCCLUDED
1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO N FL. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N75W TO 26N78W TO 23N82W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE UPPER LOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH. HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OVER THE
OPEN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N58W...AND IS CO-
LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND MODERATE MOISTURE IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 66W. FARTHER EAST...A
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 23N52W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N33W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND A SURFACE LOW ARE
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION SILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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