[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL REOCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 7N-
15N E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 4N-13N
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
10N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC HAS ENTERED THE E
CARIBBEAN AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N56W TO
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 16N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N21W TO THE EASTERN MOST
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N30W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W TO E OF THE NEXT WAVE
NEAR 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE S OF 8N TO THE BORDER OF LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPICO MEXICO AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLC AND BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N E OF 85W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
TEXAS BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND CORPUS CHRISTI. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF WITH A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE
GULF THROUGH WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY TODAY AHEAD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON. THE E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND
TUE AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED EVENING. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW
N OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE THEN REMAIN JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE AND
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 70W ANCHORED NEAR
27N75W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE NEAR
20N67W COVERING THE SW ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS
WAVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE AREA TO 32N50W. S OF THIS FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N46W AND EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE TROPICS S OF 24N/25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE N PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND
MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net