[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 22/0600 UTC FOR
THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 7N
TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W FROM 5N-13N
MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 8N-17N MOVING NW 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE
IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 84W FROM 17N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W AND
COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA BORDER.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
11N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N26W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N34W TO E OF THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 5N43W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W-
17W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE INTO
THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO S OF
TAMPA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE FAR W GULF
GIVING THE AREA 20N-28N W OF 96W SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF
WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W AND EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING INLAND OVER SW HAITI AND W CUBA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL WAVES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY MON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS THE ISLAND HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER LOW N OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE THEN REMAIN JUST N OF THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE AND
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 68W ANCHORED NEAR
28N73W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W COVERING
THE SW ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE AREA TO
32N53W. S OF THIS FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
27N43W AND EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE
TROPICS S OF 25N AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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