[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST FROM 42 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET AT THE
START...AND THEN RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 17 FEET AT THE END OF THE
48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 22/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.68 IN
TRINIDAD...AND 0.38 IN GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W...MOSTLY IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA...AND
INLAND A BIT IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N30W 5N35W TO 4N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN AFRICA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W
AND 17W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FLOWING AWAY FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...MERGES INTO THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA/THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI.

A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND IT CURVES TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD 20N BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA AND 82W...AND THEN THE WIND FLOW
CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N68W...TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 21N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT END UP IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
LOCATION AS IT HAD AT THE START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...
FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST AND
EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST CYCLE...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED NORTHWESTWARD. SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N68W...TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 30N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N15W TO
28N20W...TO A 24N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 24N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N16W...TO 28N25W...TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 28N65W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net