[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 97.0W AT 17/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM E OF AUSTIN TEXAS MOVING N AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 15N19W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 19W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF MOISTURE S OF 10N
BETWEEN 41W-48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N58W TO 14N58W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 55W-62W ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LENGTHY EASTERLY JET STRETCHING FROM
12N28W TO 09N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SURINAME AND GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N71N TO 18N71W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A POLEWARD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 64W-73W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 08N30W TO 06N42W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS INFLUENCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
22N94W AND THE OTHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 23N86W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS LARGELY INVOLVED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NW
GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 94W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 90W WITH
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD
ACROSS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 16N W OF 80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A PART OF WHICH...BETWEEN 70W-
80W...IS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE UPON EXAMINING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. E OF 70W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION...TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT STRONG LEVELS WITH
NEAR GALE FORCE...30 KT...FORECAST WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29N76W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FEATURE ALONG THE DISCUSSION
BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N
BETWEEN 53W-70W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS
WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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