[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 97.1W AT 17/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 40 NM S OF WACO TEXAS MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N74W AND LOWER PRESSURE
FOCUSED ON A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W THAT IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS THIS
MORNING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS
WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 15N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N45W TO 11N44W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF MOISTURE S OF 09N
BETWEEN 43W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N63W TO 15N60W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 58W-64W ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LENGTHY EASTERLY JET STRETCHING FROM
13N27W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N75N TO 17N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A POLEWARD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
11N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N21W TO 04N45W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS INFLUENCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
21N94W AND THE OTHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 23N87W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS LARGELY INVOLVED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE NW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 90W
WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 15N W OF 80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A PART OF WHICH...BETWEEN 70W-80W...IS
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE UPON EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. E OF
70W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 61W-71W. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORING ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...
TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT STRONG LEVELS WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE...30 KT...FORECAST WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITHIN 24
HOURS PRODUCING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 61W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N74W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING. THE ONLY FEATURE ALONG THE DISCUSSION
BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N43W INTO A 1019
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N53W TO 31N60W TO NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N
BETWEEN 55W-72W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS
WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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