[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 96.9W AT 17/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 9 NM NE OF VICTORIA TEXAS MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. AT 16/1645 UTC T.S.
BILL MADE LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND TEXAS. ALTHOUGH BILL IS
NOW INLAND OVER SE TEXAS IT IS STILL GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF N
OF 22N BETWEEN 92W-97W. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 39W/40W
FROM 3N-10N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 57W FROM 14N
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE SURGE OF
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 69W-70W
FROM 16N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOW IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N18W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAVE NEAR
7N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N41W AND CONTINUES TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROF/ITCZ BETWEEN
21W-24W AND BETWEEN 32W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ASSOCIATED T.S. BILL. THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF SPREAD INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA...TEXAS...AND MOVING INTO ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BILL COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W WHILE
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E GULF EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR SW GULF
FROM 22N96W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N84W. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. A
SEABREEZE IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE
W FLORIDA COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND OVER CUBA. THIS
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
E GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. T.S. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 80W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 13N80W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W TO OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY FRI. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF THE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SET UP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT DIPS S ALONG THE N PERIPHERY THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1018 MB
LOW NEAR 32N56W THEN ALONG 31N62W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH E-NE OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING
A SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 32N30W ALONG 26N48W TO A 1021 MB HIGH
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N75W CONTINUING INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE
TROPICS S OF 23N/24N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NW/SE ACROSS THE
ATLC THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN ALIGN ALONG 29N
OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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