[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF LOW WITH GALE WARNING...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N94W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
27N94W TO 24N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
CENTER OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N94W ALONG 26N92W TO 29N94W. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL FORMATION...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND POSSIBLE IN
EXTREME SW LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND TUE. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LIKELY
TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2 AND FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO
4N29W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
18N48W TO 9N49W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
15N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75
NM OF LINE FROM 11N55W ACROSS THE WAVE TO 14N60W INCLUDING
BARBADOS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 16N83W TO PANAMA/
COSTA RICA BORDER MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N18W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
6N28W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 5N31W AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND GALE FORCE WINDS AS DESCRIBED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE NE OF THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N91W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N TO OVER
SE LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
TAMPA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NW TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA
GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N82W TO 29N88W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N91W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW
GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N95W TO 19N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
COVERING THE E GULF E OF 90W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS
PRODUCING THE GALE FORCE WINDS NE OF THE 1006 MB LOW. THE 1006
MB SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NW BEFORE MOVING INLAND
OVER TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI TUE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE TROPICS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N80W. AN
UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGES ARE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF
CUBA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 15N E OF 64W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
OVERNIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON WED AND SW CARIBBEAN ON THU. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ON THU. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF THE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SET UP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N72W AND
COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT DIPS S TO OVER BERMUDA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR THE AZORES AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE THEN NARROWS NEAR 27N43W CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 26N55W THEN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 27N66W TO A
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N77W CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS
THE TROPICS S OF 23N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE E/W SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 26N/27N TO
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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